By Alexandros Ntaflos
In a few weeks, EU elections will take place. For many pundits, the main question of this election is how big far-right (Eurosceptic) parties will be. The idea is that an increase of the radical right parties electoral power (coming either from the ECR or ID party families) could lead to fundamental changes in EU direction in key policy areas such as Foreign Policy, Climate, and Migration. However, to just predict what is going to happen if the Far-Right gets more powerful looks a bit disillusioning. It is more important to find answers for the main challenges that the EU is facing, and not just warn how bad the situation would be if Eurosceptics prevail. But, to find convincing answers you always need to articulate valid questions. This article will try to clarify which are the key political questions that seek persuasive responses.
A New Geopolitical Era
A series of events that happened within the last decade demonstrate the new historical conditions that have emerged. The Trump administration from 2016 until 2020, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the authoritarian consolidation in China proved by the further extension of Xi Jinping’s power (and its restrictive policies in Hong Kong) demonstrate the new conditions within which the EU acts. In a few words, the EU has to deal with a more isolationist US, more aggressive Russia, and more unpredictable China. This leads to a strategic dilemma for the EU. Should it opt for closer relations with its traditional ally (US) further distancing itself from Russia and China or should it pursue the role of a balancing power that will communicate and cooperate with both actors without being openly hostile to any of them? To respond to this conundrum EU should articulate a narrative in which physical security (so far provided by the US) and economic prosperity (benefitting from the trade relations with China – and Russia until 2022) are taken into account. A balance between the two advantages is getting more and more difficult, thus a new strategy is needed in order to face the new global situation. This strategy should make a valid analysis of the current global situation. Is it feasible for the EU to protect itself without the US contribution? Is it viable to sustain its economic development without cooperating with the China-Russia axis? Lastly, can a strong military alliance (like NATO) better guarantee stability, or peaceful economic cooperation with the above-mentioned axis could deliver better results on this aspect?
Climate Policies and Economic Inequalities
Looking at the Farmers demonstrations in many EU countries it is clear that the current EU agricultural policies have created unrest within big parts of the farmers’ communities. This is a good example of how the suggested environmental policies could seriously divide societies creating deep cleavages between those who support green policies and those who are becoming poorer because of them. It is not necessary that those who oppose green policies are negating the existence of the climate crisis. However, when certain reforms have an immediate effect on the citizen’s everyday lives without providing an all-embracing vision of what is coming next, it is common that anger and unrest will follow. To halt this development some governments (mainly right-wing ones) have decided to slow down the green policies planned to avoid losing further votes from the affected citizens.
Hence, a key political question arises: Should we slowdown green reforms risking a further escalation of the climate crisis, or is a new structural mechanism needed to promote ecological policies without economically affecting the majority of the EU population (the lower and middle classes)? Of course, to answer such a difficult question a detailed plan is necessary to explain how the economic cost of the green transition can be transferred from the lower social strata to the richer ones. Generally speaking, to reduce the social polarization and the subsequent rise of populist Eurosceptic parties a new vision is necessary to set a roadmap on how European societies can become more just and economically equal.
The Migration Issue
Many analysts have connected the increase in migrants’ influx with the rise of nationalist parties. Migrants influx many times is being politically exploited by far-right parties to flame the nationalist and xenophobic feelings of the European citizens. These parties are presenting Europe as an unprotected fortress being invaded by dangerous foreigners. On the other hand, progressive parties have not managed to articulate a convincing narrative that answers the citizens’ anxieties. Thus, what is happening is that the EU migration policy is neither clear nor efficient. EU does not manage to be a good host for the migrants smoothly integrating them into society, and it cannot control their influx as the geopolitical instability is constantly increasing, so more people from poor and unstable countries want to live in Europe.
Here, the main conundrum is the following: should the EU focus on its external border protection trying to stop migrants/refugees from coming or it should give emphasis on the equal distribution and smooth integration of the people who want to live and work in Europe? In trying to give an answer to this query it is necessary to think about the historical pillars based on which the EU has been built and how these could be compatible with highly restrictive migration/refugees policies that could risk human lives (given that the migrants pushbacks in the open sea is a very dangerous practice). Furthermore, the demographic issue that the EU is facing should be also taken into account given that the predicted decrease in the population could have negative economic effects on the EU countries. Lastly, given it is not feasible for the EU to integrate every person who comes from a poor/unstable country in the world (there is a constant rise on the number of migrants/refugees), it is crucial to see how the EU intervenes to de-escalate crises in its neighboring states to reduce the number of people who want to live in its territory.
Conclusion
This article aimed to define the key questions that should dominate the public discourse concerning the upcoming EU elections. All the policy areas covered are critical for the Union’s future. New conditions have emerged, thus new narratives and strategies are needed. However, no matter how important the aforementioned questions are, one is the most significant debate who will decide what the EU’s future will be. Should a European Nation gradually emerge, heading toward the federalization of the EU constituent parts or should the Union move in a more intergovernmental direction keeping the national identities of its members intact? The strategy on the internal cohesion of the EU is blurred leading to an insufficient functioning that little by little undermines the Union’s current existence. This question is, of course, strongly interconnected with the dilemmas mentioned above. Thinking and trying to respond to these big conundrums will decide the result of the overarching debate about the nature of the Union.
About the Author
Alexandros Ntaflos is a lecturer in the institute of Political Science at Leiden University.
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