Australia one of the mightiest teams in the cricket community now forced to depend on the other team’s results to make their way into the 2024 T20 World Cup semi-finals. Australia’s semi-final chances reduced abruptly after losing their last Super 8 game against India at St Lucia.
With the victory, India qualified for the semi-finals and will face England on June 27 to play the semi-final 2 in Providence Stadium, Guyana.
A win for Afghanistan will straight away kick Australia and Bangladesh out of the league but if Bangladesh pulls out a victory there are higher chances for Australia to make it back into the tournament.
Australia Semi finals Qualification Scenario
If Bangladesh win at Arnos Vale Stadium today then three teams – Australia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh would all have two wins.
In such a scenario, the Net Run Rate will be considered to filter out the winner. As of now, Australia has the best NRR among the three.
- Australia: -0.331
- Afghanistan: -0.650
- Bangladesh: -2.489
Still Bangladesh can qualify for the semi-finals if not then their victory might help Australia to qualify for the semis.
The highest total batting first in the tournament’s four matches at Arnos Vale so far was Bangladesh’s 5-159 in the first match it hosted on June 14.
If Bangladesh bats first, scoring 160 – If Bangladesh wins by between one and 61 runs, Australia will go through to face South Africa who finished top of the Super Eight Group 2. But, if Bangladesh’s winning margin is 62 or more, by bowling the Afghans out for 98 or fewer, Bangladesh will jump Australia and make it through to the semi-finals.
If Bangladesh bats first, scoring 140 – Bangladesh would need to bowl Afghanistan out for 79 or more to see Australia go through. But, if Afghanistan make 78 or fewer, and Bangladesh’s winning margin exceeds 61, Bangladesh will surpass Australia’s NRR and make it through to the semi-finals.
If Bangladesh bats first, scoring 100 – Bangladesh would need to bowl Afghanistan out for 38 or fewer to jump Australia into the second spot (39 all out to Afghanistan would see NRR tied and Australia progress due to beating Bangladesh in their Super Eight fixture).
If Bangladesh bats second, chasing 160 – If Bangladesh chases Afghanistan’s total with 41 balls remaining or more, they will jump Australia into second spot in the group. That’s 13.1 overs completed. Any slimmer margin, or any point after 13.2 overs, will see Australia through.
If Bangladesh bats second, chasing 140 – If Bangladesh chases Afghanistan’s total with 12.4 overs completed or less (44 balls remaining), they will jump Australia into the second spot in the group. Any later in the innings will see Australia remain in second place.
If Bangladesh bats second, Afghanistan bowled out for 100 – If Bangladesh rolls Afghanistan for 100, they’d need to chase the target with 49 balls remaining or more to jump Australia into second spot.
If Afghanistan wins – If Afghanistan wins the game, then Rashid Khan and Co. will enter the semi-finals along with India while Australia and Bangladesh will be eliminated.
What if the game washout – A washout in St Vincent will see Afghanistan going through the semi-finals as both teams will receive a point, Afghanistan will pump to the tally of 3 points which will be higher than Australia and Bangladesh.
The team to qualify for the semi-finals (among Australia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh) will face South Africa on June 26 to play the semi-finals 1 in Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad.
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